THEME 3: Modelling and analytical methods to assess status and trends
The specific objective for Theme 3 is to review and progress modelling and analytical methods to support assessments of status and trends of habitats, species or foodwebs, including:
- Reviewing modelling and analytical methods to support assessments of status, trends and future states of Southern Ocean ecosystems, including species and foodwebs, and design of observing systems, and
- Consider methods for progressing the development of methods in time for the next assessment.
This theme is fundamental to undertaking and improving assessments of trajectories of species and foodwebs, taking account of positive and negative feedbacks that may arise. Models for exploring not only trends but also the potential for alternative stable states (hysteresis, tipping points) will help provide context for management bodies to meet their objectives into the future. Importantly estimating the likelihood of future states in 20-50 years will be an important topic for discussion.
This discussion wishes to advance the modelling work of previous programs of the Census of Antarctic Marine Life, Southern Ocean GLOBEC and ICED among others. This work is supported by IMBeR, ICED, CLIOTOP and a number of the SCAR groups within Life Sciences (see the SCAR website).
Key concepts and possible conclusions, along with summary figures, tables and key references will be compiled in a compendium in advance of the conference. Presentations and posters are invited to showcase methods for modelling Southern Ocean habitats, species and foodwebs/ecosystems and for discussing priorities for future work at the conference.
Inquiries about presentations to this theme or possible contributions of summaries to contribute to the compendium in advance of the conference - go to the Contact page and send us your inquiry.
Murphy, E. J., R. D. Cavanagh, E. E. Hofmann, S. L. Hill, A. J. Constable, D. P. Costa, M. H. Pinkerton, N. M. Johnston, P. N. Trathan, J. M. Klinck, D. A. Wolf-Gladrow, K. L. Daly, O. Maury and S. C. Doney (2012). "Developing integrated models of Southern Ocean food webs: Including ecological complexity, accounting for uncertainty and the importance of scale." Progress in Oceanography 102: 74-92.
Melbourne-Thomas, J., A. J. Constable, E. A. Fulton, S. P. Corney, R. Trebilco, A. J. Hobday, J. L. Blanchard, F. Boschetti, R. H. Bustamante, R. Cropp, J. D. Everett, A. Fleming, B. Galton-Fenzi, S. D. Goldsworthy, A. Lenton, A. Lara-Lopez, R. Little, M. P. Marzloff, R. Matear, M. Mongin, E. Plagányi, R. Proctor, J. S. Risbey, B. J. Robson, D. C. Smith, M. D. Sumner, E. I. van Putten and M. Travers-Trolet (2017). "Integrated modelling to support decision-making for marine social–ecological systems in Australia." ICES Journal of Marine Science 74(9): 2298-2308.
Xavier, J. C., A. Brandt, Y. Ropert-Coudert, R. Badhe, J. Gutt, C. Havermans, C. Jones, E. S. Costa, K. Lochte, I. R. Schloss, M. C. Kennicutt and W. J. Sutherland (2016). "Future Challenges in Southern Ocean Ecology Research." Frontiers in Marine Science 3(94).
Gutt, J., E. Isla, A. N. Bertler, G. E. Bodeker, T. J. Bracegirdle, R. D. Cavanagh, J. C. Comiso, P. Convey, V. Cummings, R. De Conto, D. De Master, G. di Prisco, F. d'Ovidio, H. J. Griffiths, A. L. Khan, J. López-Martínez, A. E. Murray, U. N. Nielsen, S. Ott, A. Post, Y. Ropert-Coudert, T. Saucède, R. Scherer, S. Schiaparelli, I. R. Schloss, C. R. Smith, J. Stefels, C. Stevens, J. M. Strugnell, S. Trimborn, C. Verde, E. Verleyen, D. H. Wall, N. G. Wilson and J. C. Xavier (2017). "Cross-disciplinarity in the advance of Antarctic ecosystem research." Marine Genomics. In press.
Constable, A. J., J. Melbourne-Thomas, R. Trebilco, A. J. Press and M. Haward (2017). ACE CRC Position Analysis: Managing change in Southern Ocean ecosystems. Hobart, Australia, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre: 39 pp.